By admin 
In February 2026, the global oil market is defined by a paradox: while prices are currently propped up by geopolitical “risk premiums,” the underlying fundamentals suggest a looming global oil glut.
As of February 10, 2026, Brent crude is trading near $68.80, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is hovering around $64.15. However, analysts from the World Bank and EIA are forecasting a significant “brutal correction” later this year.
1. The 2026 “Price War” vs. Geopolitics
The current market is a tug-of-war between temporary political shocks and long-term oversupply.
- The Iran-US Risk Premium: In early February, prices spiked after the U.S. advised commercial vessels to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. This “geopolitical noise” adds roughly $5–$10 to the price per barrel.
- The Looming Surplus: Beyond the headlines, global production is outstripping demand. In 2026, the market is expected to face a surplus of 2.1 to 4 million barrels per day (MMbpd).
- The “Warsh” Dollar: The nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Fed has strengthened the U.S. Dollar. Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar exerts natural downward pressure on oil prices for international buyers.
2. Impact on World Economies
The fluctuations in 2026 are creating winners and losers based on their “energy intensity.”
A. Advanced Economies (The “Disinflation” Tailwind)
- Inflation Relief: Lower projected energy prices (forecasted to average $56/bbl by year-end) are the primary reason global headline inflation is expected to drop to 3.8% in 2026.
- U.S. Shale Stress: With WTI prices dipping toward the mid-$60s, many smaller U.S. shale operators are approaching their “breakeven” point ($61–$70). This may lead to a wave of consolidations in the Permian Basin this year.
B. Emerging Markets (Mixed Fortunes)
- India and China: As the largest importers, these nations are the primary beneficiaries of the 2026 price dip. Lower costs are fueling a manufacturing surge in India, projected to add 0.3% to its GDP this year.
- Oil Exporters (OPEC+): Nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia are feeling the squeeze. OPEC+ has “paused” production increases for Q1 2026 to prevent a total price collapse,